PREDICTION SCORE

Why is my score what it is?

Your Prediction Score runs from 0 to 1000. 500 means you see things exactly as well as Africa's crowd. Above 500, you're seeing things earlier or more clearly than everyone else. Five things move it:

1. 1Be rightWhen a question resolves, calls on the right side score. The closer you were to certain, the more it counts.
2. 2Be sure only when you should beSaying 90% and being wrong costs much more than saying 55% and being wrong. Honest confidence wins.
3. 3Beat the crowdYour call is compared with Africa's number. Agreeing with an obvious crowd earns almost nothing; seeing what the crowd missed earns a lot.
4. 4Call earlyA call held for most of a question's life counts fully. A call made in the last minutes counts only a little.
5. 5Build a recordEveryone starts at 500. One lucky call barely moves you. A long record of good calls moves you a lot.

The other numbers

• Accuracy: how often your call was on the right side of 50%.
• Calibration: when you say 70%, does it happen about 70% of the time? Shows after 10 resolved calls.
• Streak: resolved calls in a row that went your way.
• Ranks: you join the Africa and country leaderboards at 10 resolved calls, a category leaderboard at 5, and the weekly board at 3 resolved that week.

Keeping it fair

• Calls can't be deleted, and they lock when a question closes.
• Results are frozen when a question resolves, with the source recorded. If a question is voided, it stops counting for everyone.
• Nobody can edit scores or ranks directly. They're calculated on our servers from calls and results.
• No money, no odds. Just your record.